Is Manmohan Singh really a failure?

Read this somewhere and wanted to share. Please note, I am not a Manmohan Singh fan or Narendra Modi basher. A true Indian who wants to see India grow and reach the top.

Read this at your own cost and don't criticize me if you do not like it.

Manmohan Singh presided over the worst ever period of equity returns in India. Turns out, it is a tad different: Manmohan’s rule has delivered the best ever 10 year period of equity returns in the history of India. So why then the clamor to throw the UPA out?

Did the UPA bankrupt India, is it leaving with its “coffers empty”? Depends on how you define these terms. If making India grow 7.5% compounded over 10 years, while sharply lowering its debt/GDP from a near bankruptcyunder the NDA (from 85% Debt/GDP in 2003 to 67% today, all at 7% WPI inflation), reducing India’s interest payments/budget revenues from 50% under the NDA, to 30% now, keeping India’s sovereign debt to extremely low levels, bringing the current account deficit to a near neutral level.

Is India the sick man of Asia/world? Was the decade a lost one? Or did we not grow from being a minnow economy to being the world’s third largest in this period. Narendra Modi is a youth icon, right? Based on what? Because he has generated tons of jobs for the youth in Gujarat, somebody tells me. That’s great. But wait a second in which industries? Since Software/IT exports from Gujarat are just 0.25% of India’s software exports, and lowly Orissa does more IT exports than Gujarat, so it can’t be IT. Services growth in Gujarat has been abysmal (Services account for just 42% of its GSDP, vs 60%+ for all major states and India). So the jobs must in manufacturing. But, my analyst tells me that almost 90% of Gujarat’s manufacturing output since 2002 is accounted for by just two co's Reliance and Essar. The last I checked, refineries didn’t need lakhs of bright, fresh-faced youth to operate. Nor do the highly polluting dyes, chemicals, pesticides industries that form the bulk of Gujarat’s industrial landscape They can easily do a thousand crores in sales with just a thousand people. Diamond polishing, maybe? But, even though I know nothing about this, I doubt if this needs an MBA or IIT engineer. Have the youth of Gujarat gotten sign-on bonuses to become milk-men, brick-layers, masons or carpenters, all to support its booming agriculture and infra industries? Probably not…So, my mind keeps asking non-stop: what is this mystery industry where the youth of Gujarat have found salvation and rozi-roti?

I thought Ganga was the most polluted river in India, and needs to be cleaned, as per Modi.Delhi the most polluted city. Maharashtra the most polluted state. But Google search results have shown Sabarmati and Vapi the most polluted rivers in India; Gujarat,the most polluted state, and Ahmedabad, the most polluted city, in India. Check it out for yourself.

Why isn’t anybody asking the question of why Gujarat’s debt service burden is the second highest in India (after Punjab, a state driven to near-bankruptcy by the Badals)? I am surprised how easily we have swallowed all the tripe about a certain model of development…or about Gujarat Model is well past its “Sell By” date.

BJP & Modi - where they stand in this elections

Few politicians are as fascinating as Narendra Modi. And for the last 12 years, no politician has been as controversial. Neither has been any politician accused, blacklisted, vilified and treated like a pariah as much. Yet he has not only survived, but thrived and has grown with each controversy.

Today, people will be surprised if he doesn't win 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Elusive allies have also understood that and are sending accommodating feelers. What's amazing is the criticism has not stopped even as the Godhra riots' censure has subsided. There's a new industry of experts looking for holes in Gujarat's development story.

Anyhow, whether Gujarat is amazing or not, one thing is clear — Modi’s political graph has continued to rise. Even the always righteous but not always right Arvind Kejriwal who has successfully tarnished many reputations so far – Gadkari, Vadra, Ambani, Sheila Dikshit to name a few — has been unable to puncture the Modi effect.

Why is that so? Is it just Modi's development agenda? Is it a lack of choice? Is it Modi's personality and oratory? Or is it his never overstated yet always present Hindutva stance? Other BJP leaders have run states well – Manohar Parrikar and Shivraj Singh Chouhan for instance. So why does Modi command a wild and passionate fan base like no other BJP leader? Is it Congress loss leading to BJP’s gain? And how much is this due to anti-incumbency and/or Manmohan Singh’s failure as PM in his 2^nd term?

Answering these questions is important. First, for BJP, which needs to capitalise on the Modi wave a bit more as it is not home yet. To have a stable government that Modi has promised his fans, few more seats than currently projected are needed. No polls by media have given a majority to BJP as yet.

Secondly, understanding Modi's popularity is important for his opposition. For now, opponents seem to be helping Modi more than hurting him. Criticism is Modi's polish, making him shine even more. Finally, figuring Modi out gives us insights about who we are as Indians.

An aspect mostly overlooked about Indian society is its understated, often subdued but strong sense of Hindu entitlement. Sure, our Constitution and laws are secular. Our public discourse shuns communal arguments, and rightly so. However, this doesn’t mean the sense of entitlement goes away. 

With over 80% Hindu population, comprising most of the world’s Hindus, it is nearly impossible to eliminate that sense of majority entitlement. Add to that Congress’s strategy of turning Muslims into a vote bank and responding better to Muslim issues. This triggered the Hindu sense of dissatisfaction even more. 

In this context, a leader representing Hindu pride will find resonance. This is why many people do not ascribe much importance to the handling of post-Godhra riots when it comes to judging Modi. For one, his role wasn’t clear (and legally has been un-proven). Second, to a section of people it felt like retribution.

Of course, this ignores the fact that Muslims who burnt the train or organised terror attacks had nothing to do with Muslims who suffered during the riots. However, emotions often supersede reason and a disgruntled Hindu populace has mostly pardoned Modi. While US seems to be clear about Modi’s involvement and have not agreed or allowed Modi to visit the Big Apple. Again, I make no judgment if this was right or wrong, but this is what happened. 

The third reason why Modi did well is his ability to manage expectations. He worked in Gujarat until it showed at least some good metrics. Gujarat may not be a perfect state, but at least on a few parameters it did better than others. More importantly, Modi never made tall claims beforehand. He worked hard first and marketed himself later. And this, he has done very well for himself and for BJP’s benefit.

Fourth, his personality is the exact opposite of Manmohan Singh. Modi is a straight talker and people like that. They want a PM who has opinions, even if they are not the most polished. It doesn't hurt that Modi has a sense of humour. Humour creates connect and adds charm. Even if many of the jokes are at the expense of the 'shehzada' and the mute PM, they do induce a chuckle. It is yet to be seen how much of a diplomatic he will when he gets chance to become the PM, which Manmohan Singh has managed it élan. While Manmohan Singh’s reputation has taken a beating domestically, his reputation overseas has always been high.

Five, Modi represents practicality. Most Indians know that while it is good to remove corruption, nepotism, dynasty, oppression of women and a million other wrongs, it isn't easy. Things change, but slowly and over time. The leader many Indians seek is not idealistic, but someone who can do a fairly good job despite the muck in our society. 

Finally Modi is, plain and simple, lucky. Rahul Gandhi is weak as a major opponent. Even the TV guys are struggling to find a real adversary for entertaining election coverage (Kejriwal is helping somewhat). The scam-ridden UPA decade has upset most Indians. The arrogance of Congress leaders hasn’t helped either. Modi arrives at a time when people want change.

Overall, we don’t know what will happen in elections. The stars seem to be getting aligned for Modi. This might be due to his and his party’s efforts. It could be luck. May be, the time is right for him as he does not have strong opponents, either they are fragmented or AAP is helping them to split the votes. Or as they say in Hindu terms, it might just be destiny.