Where did BJP go wrong in Delhi elections?

There are many theories and numbers floating around, in regards to BJP’s loss in Delhi elections, which they were expected to win easily. Some say, the voting percentage for BJP was just the same as in early election – just a marginal dip of 0.8% (Lok Sabha election of 2014 & previous Delhi Vidhan Sabha election of 2013), and it is the Congress votes that has gone to AAP, resulting in BJP’s loss.

If we look back at the results, my personal feeling is, yes, voters have moved from Congress to AAP (14.85% decrease in Congress vote share vis-à-vis 24.8% increase in AAP vote share is testimony of that). But then, why did they not move to BJP & why to AAP?

The answer lies within BJP, for they have believed themselves all along that they are invincible & public will vote for them only as alternative to Congress. They openly challenged AAP and never far once were willing to give credit to AAP’s ideology or to their leaders.

Even in Lok Sabha elections, BJP won not because of their own good doing, but largely because of anti-incumbency voting, wherein public wanted a change, for they were bored of the corrupted UPA and the only party they perceived capable of running the country was BJP. But, they did not realise this and started to become over confident.

But come Delhi elections, this was not the case. Delhi public were aware of AAP & Arvind Kejriwal, and they believed, this party can provide better alternative government to Congress (and not BJP). And this showed in the results, where 96% of seats were won by AAP alone & BJP won paltry 3 seats, a reduction of 29 seats (from 32 seats earlier).

In voters’ minds, it was always a question of Congress or its alternative. And not necessarily, BJP is the alternative always. So, if BJP wants to be the primary choice, then it will have to take the position of Congress, that is it being the driver & public to choose between itself & alternative (which can be Congress or AAP or SP etc.)

Till that happens, there shall be more states that may go Delhi way for BJP. It can be Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala etc.

Arvind Kejriwal – AAP – Fascinating success story!!

Till couple of months back, when Delhi elections were being announced, no one gave any outside chance for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or for that matter to Arvind Kejriwal.

Senior Leaders from the party were leaving; quite a few of them while leaving accused Arvind Kejriwal of being dictatorship, not listening to others etc. And opponents were dismissing them out rightly, stating Arvind to be ‘bhagoda’, one time wonder etc.

And on 10^th February, when nation was glued to news channels, what they got to see was a stunning result, that blasted the party ruling at centre, which was expecting Delhi to be easy win, something they had taken for granted. AAP got 96% of the seats (67 out of 70 seats), which is a monumental record in Delhi elections history. Something that has never been achieved, and that too by a new party which has established themselves just couple of years earlier.

These truly made global headlines, on how a small party, that does not has any major names or backing has defeated the mighty political party in power at their own den, so to speak.

When we analyse this success story, there are many areas that AAP & Arvind Kejriwal, in particular did very well, which touched the public. Of course, their win was also facilitated by their opponents, knowingly or unknowingly.

• Perseverance: Arvind/AAP never gave in to opponents, no matter how much they stooped themselves down to. They kept doing, what was correct as per them.
• Build your support system & leaders: Though Arvind was the face of party, there were equally strong support system, cadre, including the likes of Manish Shisodia, Yogendra Yadav etc.
• Clear ideology: AAP communicated its ideology & what they stand for, very early in their campaign. So there was no last minute manifesto or confusing signals to voting public.
• Common man image: Arvind’s image as a common man had etched strongly in people’s mind. There were no helicopters for aerial visits or fancy designer suits or fancy vehicles being taken around for campaigning etc. Arvind lived up to his right throughout and even his opponents could not attack him much on that image. This helped voting public to see him as one among them.
• Be positive, keep negativity at distance: Haters gonna hate. And in politics, no matter how good a person is, opponents will find reasons to hate. No two parties appreciate each other, even if they do not have anything to criticize. It is all about hate & hatred. BJP tried lot of negative campaigns and it backfired in this election, like, making fun of Arvind’s gotra, questioning AAP’s party funds, bhagoda (for Arvind quiting in 49 days in his earlier stint) and so on. But this only solidified public behind Arvind.
• Accept mistakes: In politics, generally parties do not apologies for their mistakes. Congress never apologised for Blue Star operations in 1984, BJP did not apologies either for 1991 Babri Masjid or for 2002 Gujarat riots etc., in spite of proven guilty. But Arvind apologised openly for his mistake of resigning in his earlier CM stint, that they faltered then in their judgement. While BJP tried using this to their advantage & criticized Arvind as Bhagoda, that did not cut any ice with public. Clearly, AAP were willing to make amendments and move on.

With great power comes great responsibility: While everybody is lauding AAP’s victory the real test begins now. Success brings along with it hope and responsibility. And this is true for us too. It is important to plan ahead of success. Handling these responsibilities and living up to the expectations is the only sure way to achieve the next milestone. Let’s plan and track our own progress on that front while the nation tracks AAP.

As the AAP victory goes down in history, we must carry these learnings with us. It’s time to take action and start writing your own success story now!

Do employers prefer employees who are above 50 years of age?

Been wondering for a while, what will happen to myself after I become 50+ years old.

Will I get a job in market, if I want to make a job change?

Will I still be in demand?

These questions are plaguing in my mind and when I see all around, I see more and more companies trying to recruit employees in mid 20s or maximum early 30s.

Employees in 40s (early & late not withstanding) are looked down and seldom confined to back-office. They are sort of unwanted within the organization. And if you are 50+, then you can very well count the number of days before, organization will give you a voluntary retirement, whether it is voluntary from your part or involuntary.

This is unless; you are very high in management cadre, somewhere close to top.

If I analyse reasons on why does this happen, then the answers are varied:

• Employers preferring youth: Helps them to have average age of employee workforce to under 30.
• Cost to Company: Invariably, the CTC of employees under 30s shall be comparatively lesser than employees in their 50s.
• Fresh blood & ideas: General perception that young employees will come up with fresh & innovative ideas, including risk taking abilities.
• Long working hours & stress: Employees in 20s & early 30s will be happy to put in more working hours in office & absorb more stress, as against employees in 50s.

Does this mean, men/women who are into their 50s do not have a demand in market? God forbid, if someone loses a job & he/she is 50+, then it shall be really cruel. He/She may lose hopes & optimism in life.

In short, what shall men/women in 50s do for the next 30-35 years of life?

Sit idle, watch TV and get bored of life or do social service, whether or not the person is interested in it?

Or create a new hobby or passion and devote time into it?

I am still trying to figure out answers to these… Shall put in another blog, if I could find answers. If you guys can help me with your ideas, will be more than happy to receive them…

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan – my take!

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan – Our Prime Minister announced this campaign on Independence Day, 15^th Aug 2014 and launched it on Gandhi Jayanthi, 2^nd Oct 2014. And he himself wielded broom and swept a parking area in New Delhi. It was historic moment, if not historic movement.

This campaign has a budget of INR 62,000 crores, India’s biggest cleanliness drive and expected to cover 4000 towns over 5 years. Since launch, it has been covered in media extensively, with noted celebrities, film stars, industrialists taking to street and cleaning some place or the other and has given good sound bites for media to print & telecast…

It is one month since then, and if we look at current state, where do we stand?

• Has the roads/streets become clean now?
• Has people stopped littering public places?
• Has the civic sense improved?
• Can we compare India to cleaner cities abroad?
• Was the efforts made PM & celebrities mere lip service?
• Did these acts not touch the nerve of Indians & improve their self-discipline?

Wish, I could!! None of this has happened. All around, it looks just the same. I personally, was ashamed when this campaign was launched, for I had to accept that it requires 62000 crores of public money to clean this country. And the head of country (Prime Minister) had to wield a broom to show us our state of affairs.

Seriously, why is this not working out?

Let us face the truth. Indians by and large do not want discipline themselves. They are happy to litter on the road, spit anywhere & everywhere, break rules and are happy being this way. Will a campaign by PM change them? They will happily watch PM & scores of celebrities doing these work, appreciate them and will continue their act of littering…

I see the same roads, railway stations that were cleaned so diligently when the campaign was launched, now looking just the same, as if it were never cleaned in first place.

By the way, who does these littering on roads/streets? Is it the rich, well to do or the middle class or people in lower strata of economy? It is important that every individual across these socio-economic divide feels the same towards the campaign for it to be successful.

The well to do is using this for photo ops and giving sound bites. But, truth be told, it is not these people who litter the road, for they hardly walk on road. (Of course, there are exceptions to rule here)

Middle class are more self-disciplined and seldom litter. And if someone tell them not to do, they will happily oblige. It is these people who when go abroad, are happy to follow rules and feel bad to see the state of our roads on return…

But, people in lower strata of economy are a big concern. It is these, who you will find, invariably spitting on road, throwing trash as they walk and are comfortable to live among filth. (Sorry, I am a bit harsh here, but I do not see this being far from truth).

Question is, how do you bring change in them to ensure this cleanliness campaign is success?

A little bit of education, better garbage management, more involvement from people (not photo ops & sound bites), and sustained campaign are required, if we want a clean India, if not green India.

Jai Hind!!

How it feels to catch up with long lost friend

Getting back to writing a blog after a long period of absence. Wanted to share a personal feeling about losing a very good & close friend long back and able to connect with him again.

We were very close friends during our college days and used to hang out almost every day during the 3 years of our college days, during which we studied together (special studies, called night studies, more of it detailed below), watched scores of films together (across languages – Tamil, Hindi, English), roamed around, but not much of bird watching (you know, what I mean). For he was not that sort of person then and there were much in common between us.

Night studies – It was something that we prided, meant to catch up on studies and resolve accountancy & mathematics problem together and help each other. But all we did were, we spent 1 hr of study, 3 hrs of chatting, 1 hr of walk in night (smoking) & feeling having achieved our objectives. This friend was a bit in accountancy at that point in time, but was very determined to understand & score good marks.. This continued for the entire period of college.

Our friendship continued after our college days too, even when he moved cities, to study Law in Bangalore, while I continued to be in Chennai, pursuing my own goals in studies. We exchanged letters (postal, that was prevalent in 90s).

And as fate had, we met again in Mumbai, when both of us landed for our respective jobs –he in law & myself in a 9 to 6 desk job. Our hanging out continued again, with watching films together almost every week.

But fate did not allow us to continue this for long, and we lost connection and with no communication or contacts. It must have been 15 years now since we lost touch, during which I had tried to find his whereabouts through all common friends and also searching online, but just could not. There must not have a single instance where in college friends reunion, we have not asked each other about his contact..

Of course, networking has changed a lot in these 15 years, with facebook, whatsapp, mobile etc. having improved significantly and tracing a person is far more easier. And through a sheer luck, one of college friend got hold of his contact number. Spoke to my friend and found him being around very much in Chennai now and doing well for himself. Practicing law independently, has pursued his film interest to another level, with a screenwriting course at New York Film Academy, has written 2 books and much more...

Would not want to miss him again, and would like our friendship to resume from the place, where we lost each other. But then, there is a lot that have happened in my life in these 15 years, both of us having grown busy in our individual life, family responsibilities have got added etc., and need to see how much time we are able to spend, without it impacting our other priorities… Also, physical distance (he in Chennai & myself in Mumbai) needs to be factored.

But having said that, the feeling of finding your close friend back after such a long period of gap is amazing. Truly friends are forever!!

Is Manmohan Singh really a failure?

Read this somewhere and wanted to share. Please note, I am not a Manmohan Singh fan or Narendra Modi basher. A true Indian who wants to see India grow and reach the top.

Read this at your own cost and don't criticize me if you do not like it.

Manmohan Singh presided over the worst ever period of equity returns in India. Turns out, it is a tad different: Manmohan’s rule has delivered the best ever 10 year period of equity returns in the history of India. So why then the clamor to throw the UPA out?

Did the UPA bankrupt India, is it leaving with its “coffers empty”? Depends on how you define these terms. If making India grow 7.5% compounded over 10 years, while sharply lowering its debt/GDP from a near bankruptcyunder the NDA (from 85% Debt/GDP in 2003 to 67% today, all at 7% WPI inflation), reducing India’s interest payments/budget revenues from 50% under the NDA, to 30% now, keeping India’s sovereign debt to extremely low levels, bringing the current account deficit to a near neutral level.

Is India the sick man of Asia/world? Was the decade a lost one? Or did we not grow from being a minnow economy to being the world’s third largest in this period. Narendra Modi is a youth icon, right? Based on what? Because he has generated tons of jobs for the youth in Gujarat, somebody tells me. That’s great. But wait a second in which industries? Since Software/IT exports from Gujarat are just 0.25% of India’s software exports, and lowly Orissa does more IT exports than Gujarat, so it can’t be IT. Services growth in Gujarat has been abysmal (Services account for just 42% of its GSDP, vs 60%+ for all major states and India). So the jobs must in manufacturing. But, my analyst tells me that almost 90% of Gujarat’s manufacturing output since 2002 is accounted for by just two co's Reliance and Essar. The last I checked, refineries didn’t need lakhs of bright, fresh-faced youth to operate. Nor do the highly polluting dyes, chemicals, pesticides industries that form the bulk of Gujarat’s industrial landscape They can easily do a thousand crores in sales with just a thousand people. Diamond polishing, maybe? But, even though I know nothing about this, I doubt if this needs an MBA or IIT engineer. Have the youth of Gujarat gotten sign-on bonuses to become milk-men, brick-layers, masons or carpenters, all to support its booming agriculture and infra industries? Probably not…So, my mind keeps asking non-stop: what is this mystery industry where the youth of Gujarat have found salvation and rozi-roti?

I thought Ganga was the most polluted river in India, and needs to be cleaned, as per Modi.Delhi the most polluted city. Maharashtra the most polluted state. But Google search results have shown Sabarmati and Vapi the most polluted rivers in India; Gujarat,the most polluted state, and Ahmedabad, the most polluted city, in India. Check it out for yourself.

Why isn’t anybody asking the question of why Gujarat’s debt service burden is the second highest in India (after Punjab, a state driven to near-bankruptcy by the Badals)? I am surprised how easily we have swallowed all the tripe about a certain model of development…or about Gujarat Model is well past its “Sell By” date.

BJP & Modi - where they stand in this elections

Few politicians are as fascinating as Narendra Modi. And for the last 12 years, no politician has been as controversial. Neither has been any politician accused, blacklisted, vilified and treated like a pariah as much. Yet he has not only survived, but thrived and has grown with each controversy.

Today, people will be surprised if he doesn't win 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Elusive allies have also understood that and are sending accommodating feelers. What's amazing is the criticism has not stopped even as the Godhra riots' censure has subsided. There's a new industry of experts looking for holes in Gujarat's development story.

Anyhow, whether Gujarat is amazing or not, one thing is clear — Modi’s political graph has continued to rise. Even the always righteous but not always right Arvind Kejriwal who has successfully tarnished many reputations so far – Gadkari, Vadra, Ambani, Sheila Dikshit to name a few — has been unable to puncture the Modi effect.

Why is that so? Is it just Modi's development agenda? Is it a lack of choice? Is it Modi's personality and oratory? Or is it his never overstated yet always present Hindutva stance? Other BJP leaders have run states well – Manohar Parrikar and Shivraj Singh Chouhan for instance. So why does Modi command a wild and passionate fan base like no other BJP leader? Is it Congress loss leading to BJP’s gain? And how much is this due to anti-incumbency and/or Manmohan Singh’s failure as PM in his 2^nd term?

Answering these questions is important. First, for BJP, which needs to capitalise on the Modi wave a bit more as it is not home yet. To have a stable government that Modi has promised his fans, few more seats than currently projected are needed. No polls by media have given a majority to BJP as yet.

Secondly, understanding Modi's popularity is important for his opposition. For now, opponents seem to be helping Modi more than hurting him. Criticism is Modi's polish, making him shine even more. Finally, figuring Modi out gives us insights about who we are as Indians.

An aspect mostly overlooked about Indian society is its understated, often subdued but strong sense of Hindu entitlement. Sure, our Constitution and laws are secular. Our public discourse shuns communal arguments, and rightly so. However, this doesn’t mean the sense of entitlement goes away. 

With over 80% Hindu population, comprising most of the world’s Hindus, it is nearly impossible to eliminate that sense of majority entitlement. Add to that Congress’s strategy of turning Muslims into a vote bank and responding better to Muslim issues. This triggered the Hindu sense of dissatisfaction even more. 

In this context, a leader representing Hindu pride will find resonance. This is why many people do not ascribe much importance to the handling of post-Godhra riots when it comes to judging Modi. For one, his role wasn’t clear (and legally has been un-proven). Second, to a section of people it felt like retribution.

Of course, this ignores the fact that Muslims who burnt the train or organised terror attacks had nothing to do with Muslims who suffered during the riots. However, emotions often supersede reason and a disgruntled Hindu populace has mostly pardoned Modi. While US seems to be clear about Modi’s involvement and have not agreed or allowed Modi to visit the Big Apple. Again, I make no judgment if this was right or wrong, but this is what happened. 

The third reason why Modi did well is his ability to manage expectations. He worked in Gujarat until it showed at least some good metrics. Gujarat may not be a perfect state, but at least on a few parameters it did better than others. More importantly, Modi never made tall claims beforehand. He worked hard first and marketed himself later. And this, he has done very well for himself and for BJP’s benefit.

Fourth, his personality is the exact opposite of Manmohan Singh. Modi is a straight talker and people like that. They want a PM who has opinions, even if they are not the most polished. It doesn't hurt that Modi has a sense of humour. Humour creates connect and adds charm. Even if many of the jokes are at the expense of the 'shehzada' and the mute PM, they do induce a chuckle. It is yet to be seen how much of a diplomatic he will when he gets chance to become the PM, which Manmohan Singh has managed it élan. While Manmohan Singh’s reputation has taken a beating domestically, his reputation overseas has always been high.

Five, Modi represents practicality. Most Indians know that while it is good to remove corruption, nepotism, dynasty, oppression of women and a million other wrongs, it isn't easy. Things change, but slowly and over time. The leader many Indians seek is not idealistic, but someone who can do a fairly good job despite the muck in our society. 

Finally Modi is, plain and simple, lucky. Rahul Gandhi is weak as a major opponent. Even the TV guys are struggling to find a real adversary for entertaining election coverage (Kejriwal is helping somewhat). The scam-ridden UPA decade has upset most Indians. The arrogance of Congress leaders hasn’t helped either. Modi arrives at a time when people want change.

Overall, we don’t know what will happen in elections. The stars seem to be getting aligned for Modi. This might be due to his and his party’s efforts. It could be luck. May be, the time is right for him as he does not have strong opponents, either they are fragmented or AAP is helping them to split the votes. Or as they say in Hindu terms, it might just be destiny.