Where did BJP go wrong in Delhi elections?

There are many theories and numbers floating around, in regards to BJP’s loss in Delhi elections, which they were expected to win easily. Some say, the voting percentage for BJP was just the same as in early election – just a marginal dip of 0.8% (Lok Sabha election of 2014 & previous Delhi Vidhan Sabha election of 2013), and it is the Congress votes that has gone to AAP, resulting in BJP’s loss.

If we look back at the results, my personal feeling is, yes, voters have moved from Congress to AAP (14.85% decrease in Congress vote share vis-à-vis 24.8% increase in AAP vote share is testimony of that). But then, why did they not move to BJP & why to AAP?

The answer lies within BJP, for they have believed themselves all along that they are invincible & public will vote for them only as alternative to Congress. They openly challenged AAP and never far once were willing to give credit to AAP’s ideology or to their leaders.

Even in Lok Sabha elections, BJP won not because of their own good doing, but largely because of anti-incumbency voting, wherein public wanted a change, for they were bored of the corrupted UPA and the only party they perceived capable of running the country was BJP. But, they did not realise this and started to become over confident.

But come Delhi elections, this was not the case. Delhi public were aware of AAP & Arvind Kejriwal, and they believed, this party can provide better alternative government to Congress (and not BJP). And this showed in the results, where 96% of seats were won by AAP alone & BJP won paltry 3 seats, a reduction of 29 seats (from 32 seats earlier).

In voters’ minds, it was always a question of Congress or its alternative. And not necessarily, BJP is the alternative always. So, if BJP wants to be the primary choice, then it will have to take the position of Congress, that is it being the driver & public to choose between itself & alternative (which can be Congress or AAP or SP etc.)

Till that happens, there shall be more states that may go Delhi way for BJP. It can be Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala etc.