Is Manmohan Singh really a failure?

Read this somewhere and wanted to share. Please note, I am not a Manmohan Singh fan or Narendra Modi basher. A true Indian who wants to see India grow and reach the top.

Read this at your own cost and don't criticize me if you do not like it.

Manmohan Singh presided over the worst ever period of equity returns in India. Turns out, it is a tad different: Manmohan’s rule has delivered the best ever 10 year period of equity returns in the history of India. So why then the clamor to throw the UPA out?

Did the UPA bankrupt India, is it leaving with its “coffers empty”? Depends on how you define these terms. If making India grow 7.5% compounded over 10 years, while sharply lowering its debt/GDP from a near bankruptcyunder the NDA (from 85% Debt/GDP in 2003 to 67% today, all at 7% WPI inflation), reducing India’s interest payments/budget revenues from 50% under the NDA, to 30% now, keeping India’s sovereign debt to extremely low levels, bringing the current account deficit to a near neutral level.

Is India the sick man of Asia/world? Was the decade a lost one? Or did we not grow from being a minnow economy to being the world’s third largest in this period. Narendra Modi is a youth icon, right? Based on what? Because he has generated tons of jobs for the youth in Gujarat, somebody tells me. That’s great. But wait a second in which industries? Since Software/IT exports from Gujarat are just 0.25% of India’s software exports, and lowly Orissa does more IT exports than Gujarat, so it can’t be IT. Services growth in Gujarat has been abysmal (Services account for just 42% of its GSDP, vs 60%+ for all major states and India). So the jobs must in manufacturing. But, my analyst tells me that almost 90% of Gujarat’s manufacturing output since 2002 is accounted for by just two co's Reliance and Essar. The last I checked, refineries didn’t need lakhs of bright, fresh-faced youth to operate. Nor do the highly polluting dyes, chemicals, pesticides industries that form the bulk of Gujarat’s industrial landscape They can easily do a thousand crores in sales with just a thousand people. Diamond polishing, maybe? But, even though I know nothing about this, I doubt if this needs an MBA or IIT engineer. Have the youth of Gujarat gotten sign-on bonuses to become milk-men, brick-layers, masons or carpenters, all to support its booming agriculture and infra industries? Probably not…So, my mind keeps asking non-stop: what is this mystery industry where the youth of Gujarat have found salvation and rozi-roti?

I thought Ganga was the most polluted river in India, and needs to be cleaned, as per Modi.Delhi the most polluted city. Maharashtra the most polluted state. But Google search results have shown Sabarmati and Vapi the most polluted rivers in India; Gujarat,the most polluted state, and Ahmedabad, the most polluted city, in India. Check it out for yourself.

Why isn’t anybody asking the question of why Gujarat’s debt service burden is the second highest in India (after Punjab, a state driven to near-bankruptcy by the Badals)? I am surprised how easily we have swallowed all the tripe about a certain model of development…or about Gujarat Model is well past its “Sell By” date.

BJP & Modi - where they stand in this elections

Few politicians are as fascinating as Narendra Modi. And for the last 12 years, no politician has been as controversial. Neither has been any politician accused, blacklisted, vilified and treated like a pariah as much. Yet he has not only survived, but thrived and has grown with each controversy.

Today, people will be surprised if he doesn't win 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Elusive allies have also understood that and are sending accommodating feelers. What's amazing is the criticism has not stopped even as the Godhra riots' censure has subsided. There's a new industry of experts looking for holes in Gujarat's development story.

Anyhow, whether Gujarat is amazing or not, one thing is clear — Modi’s political graph has continued to rise. Even the always righteous but not always right Arvind Kejriwal who has successfully tarnished many reputations so far – Gadkari, Vadra, Ambani, Sheila Dikshit to name a few — has been unable to puncture the Modi effect.

Why is that so? Is it just Modi's development agenda? Is it a lack of choice? Is it Modi's personality and oratory? Or is it his never overstated yet always present Hindutva stance? Other BJP leaders have run states well – Manohar Parrikar and Shivraj Singh Chouhan for instance. So why does Modi command a wild and passionate fan base like no other BJP leader? Is it Congress loss leading to BJP’s gain? And how much is this due to anti-incumbency and/or Manmohan Singh’s failure as PM in his 2^nd term?

Answering these questions is important. First, for BJP, which needs to capitalise on the Modi wave a bit more as it is not home yet. To have a stable government that Modi has promised his fans, few more seats than currently projected are needed. No polls by media have given a majority to BJP as yet.

Secondly, understanding Modi's popularity is important for his opposition. For now, opponents seem to be helping Modi more than hurting him. Criticism is Modi's polish, making him shine even more. Finally, figuring Modi out gives us insights about who we are as Indians.

An aspect mostly overlooked about Indian society is its understated, often subdued but strong sense of Hindu entitlement. Sure, our Constitution and laws are secular. Our public discourse shuns communal arguments, and rightly so. However, this doesn’t mean the sense of entitlement goes away. 

With over 80% Hindu population, comprising most of the world’s Hindus, it is nearly impossible to eliminate that sense of majority entitlement. Add to that Congress’s strategy of turning Muslims into a vote bank and responding better to Muslim issues. This triggered the Hindu sense of dissatisfaction even more. 

In this context, a leader representing Hindu pride will find resonance. This is why many people do not ascribe much importance to the handling of post-Godhra riots when it comes to judging Modi. For one, his role wasn’t clear (and legally has been un-proven). Second, to a section of people it felt like retribution.

Of course, this ignores the fact that Muslims who burnt the train or organised terror attacks had nothing to do with Muslims who suffered during the riots. However, emotions often supersede reason and a disgruntled Hindu populace has mostly pardoned Modi. While US seems to be clear about Modi’s involvement and have not agreed or allowed Modi to visit the Big Apple. Again, I make no judgment if this was right or wrong, but this is what happened. 

The third reason why Modi did well is his ability to manage expectations. He worked in Gujarat until it showed at least some good metrics. Gujarat may not be a perfect state, but at least on a few parameters it did better than others. More importantly, Modi never made tall claims beforehand. He worked hard first and marketed himself later. And this, he has done very well for himself and for BJP’s benefit.

Fourth, his personality is the exact opposite of Manmohan Singh. Modi is a straight talker and people like that. They want a PM who has opinions, even if they are not the most polished. It doesn't hurt that Modi has a sense of humour. Humour creates connect and adds charm. Even if many of the jokes are at the expense of the 'shehzada' and the mute PM, they do induce a chuckle. It is yet to be seen how much of a diplomatic he will when he gets chance to become the PM, which Manmohan Singh has managed it élan. While Manmohan Singh’s reputation has taken a beating domestically, his reputation overseas has always been high.

Five, Modi represents practicality. Most Indians know that while it is good to remove corruption, nepotism, dynasty, oppression of women and a million other wrongs, it isn't easy. Things change, but slowly and over time. The leader many Indians seek is not idealistic, but someone who can do a fairly good job despite the muck in our society. 

Finally Modi is, plain and simple, lucky. Rahul Gandhi is weak as a major opponent. Even the TV guys are struggling to find a real adversary for entertaining election coverage (Kejriwal is helping somewhat). The scam-ridden UPA decade has upset most Indians. The arrogance of Congress leaders hasn’t helped either. Modi arrives at a time when people want change.

Overall, we don’t know what will happen in elections. The stars seem to be getting aligned for Modi. This might be due to his and his party’s efforts. It could be luck. May be, the time is right for him as he does not have strong opponents, either they are fragmented or AAP is helping them to split the votes. Or as they say in Hindu terms, it might just be destiny.

Delhi elections – where do we stand

While every city in India has past glory and history to talk about, Delhi is special in its own way. The Lodhis, Mughals, British and even us in present day India, have chosen this city-state to be our capital. A city which transformed itself into a Union Territory & then a state, can definitely be said as one of the greatest cities of our country.

And yet, Delhi has lost some of its honour in the past decade or probably in last 2 decades. First, it became the hotbed of corruption, whether or not due to it being political capital, India’s biggest scams have originated here. Second, the most horrific cases of crimes against women have come from Delhi. Today, people remember Delhi as corrupt and unsafe rather than for its glorious past and history it has created for Independent India.

It is not fair to Delhiites — 99.99% of them did not tarnish the city. A few bad elements ruined the metro’s reputation. Delhi does not belong to any one native language speaking locals. Unlike Marathis in Mumbai, Bengalis in Kolkata, Tamils in Chennai, Delhi do not belong to any one native speaking locals. It belongs to all and 90% of people in Delhi are immigrants (those who have migrated to Delhi in last 50+ years from other parts of country). In fact, a recent news article says that Delhi is better than Mumbai on many counts (spends on education, health, and also on GDP, inflation..), but still our perception is that of Delhi being unsafe & not fit for staying.

Of course, statistics show many Indian cities are equally unsafe on a per-capita basis. Corruption is probably as rampant anywhere else in the country. However Delhi, being high profile, bears the taint more than others.

In this week elections, Delhi has a chance to redeem itself. It is an election the country will watch. The way Delhi votes will decide if it deserves the mantle of a great city, and in many ways is being considered as litmus test for the 2014 general elections.

It isn’t an easy election. After a long time, we now have a triangular contest between three plausible alternatives with each of these parties having a qualified and good CM candidate.

The first choice is the Congress, with a dynamic CM seeking a fourth term. Despite misconduct allegations, the fact remains Sheila Dikshit has overseen a transformation of Delhi`s infrastructure in last decade, almost unmatched in any other Indian city and is being envied by states. However, her misfortune remains her being from Congress, which faces a loss of confidence amongst the middle classes.

The second alternative is BJP. They have tried to position a clean-image CM candidate. He is not as high profile as candidates of the other two parties. However, he benefits from association with BJP, traditional alternative to Congress and the party of Narendra Modi. The Modi wave is making calculated moves, which is benefitting the party & states.

Of course, many Delhiites know the difference between the national Lok Sabha election and the local assembly election, like many other states. The true support for Modi may well be kept in reserve for Lok Sabha elections in 2014. For the assembly election, Delhi has the option to vote for another, new party founded on completely different principles. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is the most exciting part of what might otherwise have been a fairly dull election.

The AAP is unlike any other Indian political party and has Arvind Kejriwal at helm of affairs. Its origins are fascinating. It did not rise from representing an identity, common to almost all new political parties in the last 20 years. They are not representing Marathis or Dravidans or Muslims or Dalits. The non-divisive AAP represents the battered Indian who struggles through life without really making it – the COMMON MAN. Their core values, at least on paper, revolve around integrity and service and stands for a cause, a purpose. In some ways, the AAP has trapped itself into extreme accountability, which they are now being forced to live upto.

Yet they are far from perfect. Controversial sting operations on them aside, they have a long way to go in terms of striking a balance between issues such as: idealism versus practicality; rational versus practical, raising issues versus providing good administration, appeasing the aam aadmi in the short term versus making good policies for the longer term; staying fiercely independent versus working with other parties. Post-election disappointment from AAP is likely, given the burden of expectations. Future of AAP, from an issue based party to long term sustainable political party, sustaining themselves to be an aam aadmi and clean party devoid of politics will have to be seen.

However, there are much to gain if AAP wins significant number of seats in Delhi. Overnight, the main political parties will take notice. Till date, many senior and powerful leaders across parties do not bother about corruption and governance, and do not believe these are really relevant to Indian vote bank. However, if AAP can benefit politically from its platform of integrity, surely, the major parties will undertake overnight reforms to make themselves cleaner. We have seen these with few instances, where parties have tried to come clean, but that were largely due to courts’ directions.

If AAP can make clean, qualified candidates win and in considerable numbers, it will start a race within parties to get good people into politics. And this would help in restoring some credibility in our democracy and nation. For even BJP, Congress and other supposedly major parties will look for good candidates and clean themselves up. The call for clean politics has always been there. AAP’s success will provide the incentive to turn this call into action.

AAP may end up becoming martyr, but their success signals a new environment. If AAP helps clean up not Delhi, but politics of entire nation, then I will say, it has served its purpose.

If all this happens, Delhi will redeem itself and restore its honour. The city has been ridiculed and shamed far too much. In deciding their 70 assembly seats, it has the chance to show the nation why it deserves to be India`s capital.

Go Delhi. Go out and vote. Go get your honour back and help restore honour of this country!!

What is 'Forever' AND What lasts forever?

This is a beautiful read. I see lot of introspection and a process of “seeking” in your writing. Sometime back this was a topic that got discussed….

What is 'Forever'?

What lasts forever?

My answer was like this…….

I am flowing like a river

Origin known and the destination too,

Ever unknown is, what’s in between?

When I am joyful, I am a waterfall

When I am contented, I flow as a stream

Touching those pebbles as mildly as I can

and playing those notes, the music of love

changing colour, and sometime odour

all because of you!

whatever and whoever, comes in contact, what I become

all depends on you

but I never lose, what I am and what’s mine

because, I believe

What is forever

and what last forever

is nothing but this

that is the SEARCH

Search for love

Search for giving

Search for touches

Search for bond

Search for soul

Search for refuge

I am in search…

every time I research

all about life, I am in search

I am flowing like a river

Origin known and the destination too,

Ever unknown is, what’s in between?

I do not think one get answers for all our questions, especially the sort of answers that we look for, but yes we do get answers for all our questions for sure during the life process.

Going back – constant or changing?

“Can we go back to the way we used to be?” – a question everyone has thought about at some point in their life.

I suspect this is used as escape route from current problems and to get into comfort zone and live life the way they had in past. And for some, it is about resolving current problems. Alternatively, for some it is about reminiscing the “good old days” (school days/college days/courtship period/honeymoon period etc…)

But no matter what, going back to the way we used to be does not mean we will be able to really go back and live life the way we lived then. When we have moved to a new place/new job, at same time, others too would have moved on, mentally if not physically. And when we go back, we will feel the difference and sometimes feel whether we have made the right decision to go back. And then we will neither be here or there.

That is, everyone would have enjoyed their school days and college days as well, but after growing up (what is growing up is another subject to discussJ) into a middle aged person, you cannot go back and live the life of college days (hang out with friends, spending hours together just chatting, ogling at girlsJ, get drunk and what not…), though you might continue to wish.

Everyone has problems in their life and look for solutions. Though, they all sound same, our thinking and way of finding solutions are not same and are different/strange in their own way, but going back is easier said than done…

Inflation eroding savings - scary state!

Read the below article in newspaper and felt it perfectly explains the current situation in India and metros in particular where the savings / surplus money post expenses has reduced significantly. While the issue of increased consumerism was the cause till sometime back, now the increase in inflation year on year and consistently remaining high is causing the problem.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/inflation-eroding-savingsindiansmetros-survey_991462.html

Many middle income families are trying hard to maintain the consumption levels through opting for value buying (buying equal product at lesser costs), cutting costs where possible (reducing eating out, going out for movies, postponing expenses etc.). And similarly, many are also considering switching jobs to increase pay.

While, another survey suggests that average increment in 2014 can be expected to be around 11%, but after factoring in inflation, the rise in India is expected to be 2%. On companies side, the high inflation is putting pressure in terms of high input costs, slowing economy and coupled with demands for higher salary hikes.

These impacts the standards of living, lesser savings, reduction in net worth. Reports say that the household savings rates have dropped by a staggering 40% in last 3 years.

Scary state to be in currently and scarier, when you think of the future!!

Social Media or Newsmakers?

This article in ET caught my eye. It is interesting that this guy's FB post of Saravana Bhavan being bought over by Sun Group got noticed by a Bangalore based techie, Suseendran, as reported here by ET and journalists and finally led to an IT department raid.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-11-06/news/43733531_1_kalanithi-maran-tweet-journalists

I am not really a person for conspiracy theories, but do we now have newsmakers in Social Media, who randomly write random stories like this.

I am wondering, how much of news/updates that we see in Social Media are true? This leads to next question of, why do we have these so-called newsmakers or social rowdies in Social Media?

Is it for:

• Vengeance against the celebrities?
• Cheap thrill?
• First to break news, update friends?
• Gossiping, spread rumors?

Whatever be the reasons, this has led to many false news being spread which are far from truth – right from celebrities being pregnant to their marriages to their death.

Quite a many times, media picks up these news/updates, turns into news/articles and publishes it in newspapers next day. Is it because of lack of news or laziness and easy source to tap and create news?

After this, the concerned celebrity will have to defend his position, send more updates, etc, which again becomes news for Media.

In short, you create one news and that babies more news. Vicious circle!!

Do we need a fresh law to tackle this? Then, people will raise objections stating freedom of expression is curtailed. Question is, how much freedom is too much freedom?

Bottom line - do not trust a social media post blindly. Always verify, double-check its source and authenticity. Especially when it involves people, their families and their livelihoods.